The Steven Stamkos Saga

Nice alliteration huh?

We can really replace his name with a few of the high profile pending RFA's to be lately, but it seems to be that his name is at the top of the list, and on the tips of tongues and fingers everywhere. For good reason I suppose. As currently as this afternoon Tampa Bay has been signing other players (D-men Bruno Gervais and Marc-Andre Bergerson), arguably deemed lesser players, to their roster but have yet to sign Stamkos to a deal. I can hear you asking yourselves already, what pucking gives?! Quite honestly no one really knows, but I'll try to figure it out as best as I can.

According to Capgeek.com, the Lightning have 21 million dollars in cap space right now. Let us just assume for a moment, that Stamkos is looking for Vinny LeCavalier type money (a 7.7 mil cap hit until next millennium). With the current state of of long term deals it seems simple enough to ink him to a long term front loaded contract with a cap hit around 6 million dollars. There is some speculation out there that Steve Yzerman trying to follow the Detroit business model where the top end guys take a little less money for the good of the organization, and it looks like Stamkos isn't biting. Why should he? Back to back 90+ point seasons, with 45 or more goals. The kid is turning into everything that he was expected to be, and possibly more. He has every right to ask for more money. Now on June 22nd TSN reported that Stamkos Says He's "close" to a Deal with Lightning. What could've happened within the span of a week to change all that? With mum being the word from all sides, it's hard to gauge. Without trying to dissect this even further, I'm going to skip right to the speculation flying around. Yeah yeah, enough pucking around, I know.

Let the rumors begin. July 1 is literally right around the corner. Tampa Bay has cap room, but it is being reported that they have lost from anywhere from 20-30 million dollars this past season, despite coming within one game of the Stanley Cup finals. That certainly doesn't bode well for a long term lucrative deal for Stamkos. There are also reports that Stevie Y. has said that he's ready for anything, you have to wonder if there will be money enough to match any/every offer sheet that comes through the door. With the cap floor being so high, a lot of teams are struggling to make it there, so an offer sheet could come from teams with cap room to spare, or from a big market club with space and money to burn. Barring an offer that is completely out of reach you have to wonder if Tampa Bay will match year after year until Stamkos becomes a free agent, or they will manage to iron out a deal before someone else comes along with an offer sheet to good to refuse.

Undoubtedly the compensation will be four consecutive 1st round draft picks, as there is no way the Lightning will be unable to match a smaller offer, nor will one be issued in all likelihood. Teams rumored to be in on the possibility of an offer sheet are Toronto and Philadelphia although any number of teams can make a move, as long as they have their picks to offer as compensation. However, it doesn't make any sense for those to clubs. For starters, Philadelphia has only 8.2 million in cap space currently, and still has to reach deals with recently acquired RFA's Voracek and Simmonds, while also attempting to re-sign pending UFA Ville Leino, whom the Flyers have expressed great interest in locking back up. Not to mention the Flyers are in need of some depth players and possibly a younger defenseman to come in and learn the system while playing a limited minutes role until some key veterans retire, which may be sooner than later. Despite what amounts to rumor mongering by Frank Seravelli of the Philadelphia Daily News, it just seems illogical for the Flyers to make that kind of run at a player. Although to be fair to Frank, this is Philadelphia we're talking about so anything is possible. Toronto seems more likely with over 18million in cap space and an overwhelming need for a number one center. However, with the state of their team, and the bitterness over losing two first round picks for Phil Kessel (which resulted in the second overall pick in the draft, Tyler Seguin and a Stanley Cup for Boston) I cannot see Brian Burke willing to give up four years worth of draft picks. However, if anyone is "crazy" enough to do it, it would be Burke.

Another option could be the New York Rangers. While they are front runners for Brad Richards once free agency opens up, if that goes awry, they do have the space and the craziest of all GM's in Glen Sather to possibly pull this off. I see this as a dark horse at best, simply because they're freeing up their cap space for Brad Richards, and given that player's close relationship to current coach John Tortorella, it's hard to imagine Richards going anywhere else. Other teams with cap space to burn and some offensive woes are the Ottawa Senators (who have holes up and down their line up), Nashville Predators (who play a defensive system), St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche (who are currently deepest at center position).

So as free agency prepares to open its flood gates, we sit and watch as these rumors continue to fly. If you take the time to pause for a moment though, it only seems to make sense that he stays in Tampa Bay. Yzerman will be forever defined by what happens in the coming days, possibly weeks. He's smart and competitive, and there's no way he's simply going to be out bid for a player. If a team puts together a deal, he can simply match it for a year and spend all that time negotiating a long term contract. While fans are enjoying the thoughts of Stamkos in their favorite team's sweater, at the end of the day it's just a pipe dream. Anything is possible, sure, but this one is probably the furthest from it, without being officially impossible.