Wednesday, June 8, 2011

"Elite" Goaltending

Can you win without it? This has been the debate for awhile now and with two high paid, Vezina battling it out for the Stanley Cup, I figured it's high time to put this to the test. We will be going back to the lockout looking at goaltending match ups and seeing who is an "elite" goaltender (in terms of talent and price) and who isn't. Both winners and losers, so let's get right to it.

note: most numbers will come from hockeyzoneplus.com a nifty little site for crunch numbers, past and present. Capgeek.com provides the rest.

2005/2006 Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes

Dwayne Roloson:
salary during cup run - $1,672,000
salary post cup run (average) - 3.25 million (currently 2million)

Roloson has built a reputation on being a competitor and all but unbeatable in elimination games. His first elimination game loss in his career was this year in game 7 of Eastern Conference finals to Boston. A late bloomer, and a fierce competitor, Roloson comes relatively cheap for an expirienced and reliable goaltender.

Cam Ward:
salary during cup run - $684,000
salary post cup run (average) 1.91 million (currently 3 million with a cap hit of 6.3 million through 2016)

Ward was what everyone wants, a young cheap goaltender with top level talent, who rode a hot streak at just the right time. 05-06 was his rookie season and his stats were average at best. 14-8-2 with a 3.68 GAA and a save percentage of .882. Yet, in the playoffs he went 15-8 with a GAA of 2.14 and a .920 save percentage en route to hoisting the Stanley Cup and winning the Conn Smythe trophy. His numbers have improved steadily in each year following his rookie campaign, despite not making it back to the Cup finals. Ward is the kind of goalie you want behind your team, as he will give them a chance to win game in and game out.

2006/2007
Anaheim Ducks vs Ottawa Senators

Ray Emery:
salary during cup run - $925,000
salary after cup run (average) - $1,410,000 (currently in a 500,00 one year deal)

Ray Emery has quite the story. He comes out of nowhere to help Ottawa get the closest they've ever been to win the Cup, and then quickly falls from grace with reckless off ice behavior and poor work ethic. After a year in KHL, he improved his work ethic and play, only to fall victim to a potentially career ending hip injury. He has since battled back and got a job with Anaheim, but will be a UFA at the end of the season. With his athletic style and competitive nature, one can only imagine what he could be commanding if he had more commiment a few years ago....and stayed healthy.

Jean-Sebatian Giguere
salary during cup run - $3,990,000
salary after cup run (average) - approx. 7million (currently in the last year of a 6million contract)

Giguere is one of the highest paid on this list, both before and after the cup win. A Conn Smythe winner in 02-03, and a Cup winner in 07, J.S. Giguere comes with a winning pedigree and, when healthy, a chance to win every game as well as a chance to steal a game or series. What has lead to Giguere being a question mark for a lot of teams has been his health. A UFA on July 1, the big payday will be hard to come by for the oft injured Giggy. For the right price he could still be a reliable 1B in a tandem or veteran backup for a team.

2007/2008 Detroit Redwings vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Dominick Hasek:
salary during cup run - $2,050,000
salary after cup run (average) - retired

Hasek is a rare case here, as he was a veteran with enough hardware; 6 Vezina trophies, 3 William H. Jennings, 2 Lester B. Pearson awards and a Hart Trophy. All that was missing was a Stanley Cup, which he narrowly lost in a controversial goal in 1999 scored by Dallas' Bret Hull. A Bargain at just over 2 million, Hasek made the most of his opportunity, and finally won the last piece missing from his already impressive collection, a Stanley Cup.

Marc-Andre Fleury
salary during cup run - $1,600,000
salary after cup run (average) - currently in a long term deal with a 5 million cap hit

Fleury, in just his 3rd season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, helped the team to within two wins of the Stanley Cup in 08. While the Penguins were beaten by the seasoned veterans of the Red Wings, they would turn the tables next season.

2008/20009 Detroit Redwings vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Chris Osgood:
salary during cup run - $1,700,000
salary after cup run (average) - $1,416,667 (UFA july 1)

Osgood has been a staple in the Redwings lineup for the better part of his career since 93-94 (barring a 3 year stint with the Islanders and St. Louis). At times the starter and backup others, Osgood has seemed to as much a part of the Redwings as the Winged Wheel. Nearing the end of his career, it seems he took a home town discount to be in Detroit for what one would assume would be the final years of his career. Once again the battle tested Redwings made the playoffs and looked to repeat as Cup champions, but this year the Penguins would turn the tables and win in a dramatic game 7.

Marc-Andre Fleury
salary during cup run - 3,500,000
salary after cup run (average) - currently in a long term deal with a 5 million cap hit

Marc-Andre Fleury would not be denied a second time, and with the clock winding down in game 7, the man they called Flower made an incredible diving save to deny the redwings a chance to tie and the Pittsburgh Penguins hoisted their 3rd Stanley Cup, and first since 1992. Fleury has cemented himself among the games best goaltenders in the game today with that save.

2009/2010 Chicago Blackhawks vs Philadelphia Flyers

Michael Leighton:
salary during cup run - $600,00
salary after cup run (average) - $1,500,000

Michael Leighton, and the story of the 09-10 Philadelphia Flyers goaltenders, will probably one of the most bizzare and talked about events of that season, at least among Flyers fans. Michael Leighton was claimed off waivers as an emergency back up when Ray Emery was injured, as was seemingly every other goaltender in the Flyers organization at the time. A career backup/AHL netminder, Leighton captured lightning in a bottle and took the starting job not once, but twicew from Brian Boucher and led the Flyers within two wins of the Stanley Cup, the closest they've been since winning it all in 74-75. However remarkable the run was, including 3 shutouts in the conference finals against the Montreal Canadiens, the reasons he has spent a lot of time in the minors became apparent on the bad angle Cup Winning goal by Patrick Kane.

Antti Niemi:
salary during cup run - $826,857
salary after cup run (average) - $2,000,000 (in a long term deal with 3.8 million cap hit)

Coming into the playoffs, the biggest question mark for the Blackhawks was the play of their goaltenders. Niemi, a 26 year old rookie, and Cristobal Huet were seen as the weakest links for Chicago, when arguable goaltending needs to be the strongest. Niemi managed to silence all but the harshest of critics. He wasn't spectacular, but he managed to close the door when it mattered most, and helped Chicago win their first cup since 1961. Niemi was eventually allowed to walk after an arbitration hearing where the cap strapped Blackhawks could not afford to re-sign him. He ended up in San Jose and took them to the Western Conference Finals where they lost to the Vancouver Canucks.

2010/2011 Boston Bruins vs Vancouver Canucks

Tim Thomas:
salary during cup run - $6,000,000
salary after cup run (average) - $6,000,000 (5 million cap hit)

Tim Thomas has had a bounce back year where he looks to be all but assured his 2nd Vezina Trophy. Despite some games against Montreal and Tampa Bay in the playoffs, Thomas has continued his excellent performances from the regular season. He has kept the Bruins in close games, and has managed to stifle the competition in others. Whether or not he will hold the Stanley Cup above his head remains to be seen, but with play like his, it's not hard to imagine it already.

Roberto Luongo:
salary during cup run - $10,000,000 (5.3 million cap hit)
salary after cup run (average) - long term deal with 5.3 million cap hit

Luongo will forever be labeled as a choker, until he wins the Stanley Cup, and he is the closest he has ever been. Having passed to two tough mental challenges to get here, the Chicago Blackhawks who have twice defeated the Canucks in the 2nd round, and making it out of the 2nd round, Luongo finally looks ready to silence the critics. Until games 3 and 4 of the Stanley Cup finals where he has allowed 12 goals on 58 shots. I don't need to do the math to know those are terrible numbers. Luongo will have to shake the cobwebs off and be much more solid in game 5, or else he will find himself again on the bench watching the younger and cheaper Cory Schneider try to win it all for the Canucks.


So now the question is, do you need "elite" goaltending to win the Cup? After last season, the common answer is no, but looking at all the winners (and in some cases the losers) of the Stanley Cup, the answer seems to be yes. Are there bargain goalies who can get hot and help you win, or at least get you close? Absolutely, and the Flyers are proof positive of that last year, as are the Blackhawks. However, both teams tried it again this year (Sergei Bobrovsky/Boucher/Leighton for the Flyers, Corey Crawford for the Blackhawks) and they both came up well short of a rematch. It is entirely possible for a young goalie to get hot and help you win, as proof by Cam Ward's run in 06, but at the end of the day you need someone who can stop the puck when it matters most. Judging by the track record of so-called bargain goalies, you get what you pay for...and that's close, but not close enough. The eventual winner of the Stanley Cup for the 2010-2011 season will have one of the highest paid goaltenders in the league, as well as possible Vezina winner. For two teams looking to end a drought or bring home the franchise's first, the price paid to hold that piece of silver up will be worth every penny.

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