8 down, 8 to go.

We’re halfway home. The Conference Finals start Saturday the 14^th and well, we’ve come this far, so let’s break down the match ups and pick some winners. Although last round predictions were terrible going one for four so let’s see if this will be better or worse.

Western Conference Finals
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #2 San Jose Sharks

The age old battle of the choke off. Which team wants to lose marginally less is how most people are looking at this. Both teams blew 3-0 series leads this year, only to win their respective game 7’s in dramatic fashion. The Canucks gave up a one goal lead inside of the final two minutes of regulation against the Blackhawks in the first round to conjure up shades of the past two years where they were eliminated by Chicago in the conference semis. Somehow, Chicago managed to beat themselves in OT and Vancouver moved on to face Nashville who they defeated in six games.
The Sharks had their own little voyage of “they’re going to blow it…again” moments this year as well. After defeated the injury depleted Los Angeles Kings in six games, they faced Detroit, a team they faced in the second round last year as well, and handily beat in five games. San Jose are the poster boys for post season futility, as they consistently perform well in the regular season, but fail to win when it counts. They advanced to the Conference Finals last year, but were swept by eventual cup winners Chicago.

Breakdown: The Canucks have a lot of pressure on them, having won the President’s Trophy this season and advancing to the Conference Finals for the first time since 1994, when they advanced to the Stanley Cup finals, losing to the New York Rangers in seven games. The Sharks have never been to the Cup finals, but are looking to shake their underachieving reputation once and for all with a trip of their own. San Jose has a bit of history on their side this year. He currently stands between the pipes and goes by the name Antti Niemi. He was in goal last year for the Chicago Blackhawks when they dispatched the Canucks, and I’m surely the Sharks are hoping he continues his winning ways against them.
While the Sedins have been relatively MIA this post season, the play of Ryan Kesler has been simply outstanding for Vancouver. 11 of his 15 postseason points came in the series against Nashville, and he appears to be finding his groove, which is something the Sharks can ill afford to let continue. Offensively both teams are rather well balanced in terms of depth, but you have to give the edge defensively, at least on paper, to Vancouver. So far Luongo has played well, outlasting Corey Crawford and Pekka Rinne but given Nashville’s lackluster offensive numbers, that wasn’t a huge task. The Sharks are a much more offensively gifted team than Nashville was, and he will need to play some of the best hockey of his career to advance the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 16 years.

Bottom Line: Sharks in 6. I believe that Antti Niemi will be the better goaltender in the series, but given the actual clutch play of “Jumbo” Joe Thorton, the Sharks are finally getting playoff production from their top players. If Vancouver cannot get that same kind of production from the Sedins, this series will be over pretty much before it began.


Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Boston Bruins vs #5 Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning waste no time. This is their first playoff appearance in four years and here they are now, four wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals. The Boston Bruins on the other hand haven’t been to the Conference Finals since 1992. Tampa Bay has had a remarkable run this post season. Coming from 3-1 down to eliminate the Crosby/Malkin-less Penguins, they then went on to sweep the top seeded Washington Capitals, where they managed to make them regress a few seasons in a matter of a few periods. The Tampa Bay Lightning also have one of the most dynamic playoff goaltenders in Dwayne Roloson. This guy is practically unbeatable in elimination games, and he carried the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals in 06, where if not for his injury in game one, many believe they would’ve won the Cup.
The Boston Bruins have no slouch between their pipes either. All but guaranteed a second Vezina trophy for his absolutely dominating performance this season, Tim Thomas has returned to the form he seemingly lost a year ago. The Bruins defeated their bitter rivals the Montreal Canadiens in a seven game classic series in the opening round before having their way with the Flyers in a four game sweep in the Conference semifinals. A balanced attack and solid team defense, along with Thomas stopping almost everything that comes his way makes the Bruins a tough out this post season.

Breakdown: Tampa Bay is getting scoring from the unlikeliest of places. Vinny Lecavalier. While that seems like a joke, Vinny hasn’t been his 50 goal self in a long time, and he is finding his touch this post season, as he is second on the team with 12 points, behind Martin St. Louis with 13. Other unlikely scorers are former Islander Sean Bergenheim. He has 8 points (7, 1) in 11 games. His career high regular season numbers are 29 points (14, 15) which he scored this year. It’s not impossible to think that he can match his regular season goal total in the playoffs this year. Steve Downie also continues to thrive down in Tampa as he is tied with Lecavalier for points in the playoffs. If Steven Stamkos can start to contribute regularly (4g, 2a, -2) this Tampa Bay Lightning team will become even scarier.
The Bruins finally got some scoring from Milan Lucic in the second round where most of, if not all, of his points came in the series against the Flyers. He and Nathan Horton have found some chemistry and they are a dangerous pair coming down the wing. The biggest concern for Boston is the loss of leading playoff scorer Patrice Bergeron, who was concussed on a questionable hit from Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux. Taking his place in the lineup will be 19 year old rookie Tyler Seguin. Seguin doesn’t bring the complete game Bergeron has, but he has speed, an excellent skill set and youthful energy. It’s unlikely he will produce the kind of points that Bergeron did, but he can give the Lightning one more thing to think about. David Krejci and Nathan Horton will be looked on to contribute more in the points department, but after watching Krejci in the Philly series, that shouldn’t be a problem. Look to Tim Thomas once again to stop the vast majority of pucks thrown his way. He will be there to bail the Bruins out should any type of defensive lapse or breakdown occurs.

Bottom Line: This will be a great goaltending match up to watch. Tim Thomas is a Vezina winner and Rollie the ageless goalie is simply an unbelievable playoff performer. Two potential Conn Smythe winners will be battling it out in the Eastern Conference for a right to play for the Cup. At the end of the day, I think that Tampa Bay has more “elite” talent (as much as I hate to use that reasoning) and Roloson’s will to win, will put Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup finals once again. Lightning in 7.