Monday, May 16, 2011
This is the song that doesn't end
With the city of Glendale voting to keep the Coyotes in the desert for next year, the good folks of True North have elected to pursue the Thrashers. While no one likes to see a team move, due to the loss of jobs and obvious fan desertion, the question is where were the fans all along? The Thrashers and Coyotes have one thing in common; they lose money. since 2005 the Thrashers have lost $130 million dollars. For you lazy types, that's 21.6million dollar lost per season. It's almost like they're still paying Marion Hossa. Seriously though, this is a team that has no viable support locally. The ownership has been looking for a buyer for at least six years. Disinterested ownership and a lackluster fan base is disaster for any team. There are now grass root movements to keep the Thrashers in Atlanta, but to these people I ask, where have you been?
The upside for the Thrashers, wherever they end up, is two fold. For starters, they have a young nucleus of players and they have shown improvement the past few seasons, despite not making the playoffs. Smart drafting and young talent is a great recipe for success. They currently have 21million in cap space. Assuming they get an owner that is committed to winning (see: Buffalo Sabres) and they take on some salary they can become more of a realistic threat within the Southeast Division. Now don't go reading that thinking I'm saying they're Cup contenders, but they are on the right track. Slow and steady wins the race right? The second part is a bit more ambitious and contingent on them actually relocating (assuming Winnipeg). They will be in a more hockey friendly community and in theory make more money. More money means that a team can spend more, and spending can lead to winning. This really all boils down to money.
At the end of the day, hockey is a business. Despite all our attachments to teams and players, and we all know how emotional we can be as fans (see touching Derek Boogaard memorial in Minnesota the other day), they aren't given to us out of the goodness of the league/owners' hearts. They are a commodity and an investment. I will not sit here and say that non traditional hockey markets like Atlanta and Phoenix are doomed to fail, as there are plenty of markets not normally associated with hockey that are thriving. Look at all three California teams. The Kings have been in the league since 1967 and they have yet to win the Cup, but are sustained by a loyal fan base, and a sports friendly town. Also Nashville is finding success in a town known more for giant belt buckles and cowboy hats than ice skates and hockey helmets. Hockey can work almost anywhere it seems, but if the cities of Glendale and Atlanta have taught us anything, it's that it's not working there. I'm not saying any team needs to be moved for the sake of moving, but when will enough be enough? The NHL is already knee deep in the Coyotes saga, how much longer before the Thrashers are caught up in the mix too?
And now with that said and done, assuming the the Thrashers do in fact move to Winnipeg, there will need to be realignment in the NHL. Well there doesn't have to be, but I can only imagine a back to back home and home series between the Winnipeg Whatevers and Florida Panthers. That second game would be boring as well with a nice 2400mile commute. So let us break down how the league is set up now, and how it could (and in my opinion SHOULD) change. There are only 3 divisions listed simply because I can't see this affecting any more than the divisions listed.
Southeast Division: (currently)
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
Atlanta Thrashers
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Northwest Division: (currently)
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Colorado Avalance
Calgary Flames
Minnesota Wild
Central Division: (Currently)
Detroit Redwings
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus Bluejackets
St. Louis Blues
Now if Atlanta moves to Winnipeg it stands to reason that they will be in the Northwest Division, in which case this is the most likely of scenarios.
Northwest Division: (Realigned)
Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers
Winnipeg
Calgary Flames
Colorado/Minnesota
Either Minnesota or Colorado will mostly be the odd man out in the division. A lot of people are suggesting Minnesota be the most likely candidate out of the Division and it makes sense geographically, but the idea of Colorado moving to the Central Division could be great, and hopefully reignite the Avalanche/Red Wings rivalry.
Central Division: (Realigned)
Detroit Red Wings
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus/Nashville
Colorado/Minnesota
Again people are saying Detroit wants to come back east, but I think they're too big a draw for Western market teams. Detroit is a team you want to see when they come to town, whether you love or hate them. So for now anyway, I pick them to stay in the Central. As listed before, I can see the Avalanche or the Wild come over from the Northwest, and the odd men out in the Central are either Columbus or Nashville. Going back to the geographical debate, Nashville is the most likely candidate to move into the Southeast division. It's close to all other teams in the divisions, and gives great exposure to a team that deserves all it can get. Great team hockey and terrific coach. It also gives the Eastern media a chance to see great players like Pekka Rinne and Shea Weber on a more consistent basis. It's a win win for the league and the Predators. I think that's something almost everyone can get behind. Well everyone that doesn't live in Atlanta anyway. So after all that, here it is. I think it looks like a pretty good division.
Southwest Division: (realigned)
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nashville Predators
Friday, May 13, 2011
8 down, 8 to go.
We’re halfway home. The Conference Finals start Saturday the 14th and well, we’ve come this far, so let’s break down the match ups and pick some winners. Although last round predictions were terrible going one for four so let’s see if this will be better or worse.
Western Conference Finals
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #2 San Jose Sharks
The age old battle of the choke off. Which team wants to lose marginally less is how most people are looking at this. Both teams blew 3-0 series leads this year, only to win their respective game 7’s in dramatic fashion. The Canucks gave up a one goal lead inside of the final two minutes of regulation against the Blackhawks in the first round to conjure up shades of the past two years where they were eliminated by Chicago in the conference semis. Somehow, Chicago managed to beat themselves in OT and Vancouver moved on to face Nashville who they defeated in six games.
The Sharks had their own little voyage of “they’re going to blow it…again” moments this year as well. After defeated the injury depleted Los Angeles Kings in six games, they faced Detroit, a team they faced in the second round last year as well, and handily beat in five games. San Jose are the poster boys for post season futility, as they consistently perform well in the regular season, but fail to win when it counts. They advanced to the Conference Finals last year, but were swept by eventual cup winners Chicago.
Breakdown: The Canucks have a lot of pressure on them, having won the President’s Trophy this season and advancing to the Conference Finals for the first time since 1994, when they advanced to the Stanley Cup finals, losing to the New York Rangers in seven games. The Sharks have never been to the Cup finals, but are looking to shake their underachieving reputation once and for all with a trip of their own. San Jose has a bit of history on their side this year. He currently stands between the pipes and goes by the name Antti Niemi. He was in goal last year for the Chicago Blackhawks when they dispatched the Canucks, and I’m surely the Sharks are hoping he continues his winning ways against them.
While the Sedins have been relatively MIA this post season, the play of Ryan Kesler has been simply outstanding for Vancouver. 11 of his 15 postseason points came in the series against Nashville, and he appears to be finding his groove, which is something the Sharks can ill afford to let continue. Offensively both teams are rather well balanced in terms of depth, but you have to give the edge defensively, at least on paper, to Vancouver. So far Luongo has played well, outlasting Corey Crawford and Pekka Rinne but given Nashville’s lackluster offensive numbers, that wasn’t a huge task. The Sharks are a much more offensively gifted team than Nashville was, and he will need to play some of the best hockey of his career to advance the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 16 years.
Bottom Line: Sharks in 6. I believe that Antti Niemi will be the better goaltender in the series, but given the actual clutch play of “Jumbo” Joe Thorton, the Sharks are finally getting playoff production from their top players. If Vancouver cannot get that same kind of production from the Sedins, this series will be over pretty much before it began.
Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Boston Bruins vs #5 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning waste no time. This is their first playoff appearance in four years and here they are now, four wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals. The Boston Bruins on the other hand haven’t been to the Conference Finals since 1992. Tampa Bay has had a remarkable run this post season. Coming from 3-1 down to eliminate the Crosby/Malkin-less Penguins, they then went on to sweep the top seeded Washington Capitals, where they managed to make them regress a few seasons in a matter of a few periods. The Tampa Bay Lightning also have one of the most dynamic playoff goaltenders in Dwayne Roloson. This guy is practically unbeatable in elimination games, and he carried the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals in 06, where if not for his injury in game one, many believe they would’ve won the Cup.
The Boston Bruins have no slouch between their pipes either. All but guaranteed a second Vezina trophy for his absolutely dominating performance this season, Tim Thomas has returned to the form he seemingly lost a year ago. The Bruins defeated their bitter rivals the Montreal Canadiens in a seven game classic series in the opening round before having their way with the Flyers in a four game sweep in the Conference semifinals. A balanced attack and solid team defense, along with Thomas stopping almost everything that comes his way makes the Bruins a tough out this post season.
Breakdown: Tampa Bay is getting scoring from the unlikeliest of places. Vinny Lecavalier. While that seems like a joke, Vinny hasn’t been his 50 goal self in a long time, and he is finding his touch this post season, as he is second on the team with 12 points, behind Martin St. Louis with 13. Other unlikely scorers are former Islander Sean Bergenheim. He has 8 points (7, 1) in 11 games. His career high regular season numbers are 29 points (14, 15) which he scored this year. It’s not impossible to think that he can match his regular season goal total in the playoffs this year. Steve Downie also continues to thrive down in Tampa as he is tied with Lecavalier for points in the playoffs. If Steven Stamkos can start to contribute regularly (4g, 2a, -2) this Tampa Bay Lightning team will become even scarier.
The Bruins finally got some scoring from Milan Lucic in the second round where most of, if not all, of his points came in the series against the Flyers. He and Nathan Horton have found some chemistry and they are a dangerous pair coming down the wing. The biggest concern for Boston is the loss of leading playoff scorer Patrice Bergeron, who was concussed on a questionable hit from Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux. Taking his place in the lineup will be 19 year old rookie Tyler Seguin. Seguin doesn’t bring the complete game Bergeron has, but he has speed, an excellent skill set and youthful energy. It’s unlikely he will produce the kind of points that Bergeron did, but he can give the Lightning one more thing to think about. David Krejci and Nathan Horton will be looked on to contribute more in the points department, but after watching Krejci in the Philly series, that shouldn’t be a problem. Look to Tim Thomas once again to stop the vast majority of pucks thrown his way. He will be there to bail the Bruins out should any type of defensive lapse or breakdown occurs.
Bottom Line: This will be a great goaltending match up to watch. Tim Thomas is a Vezina winner and Rollie the ageless goalie is simply an unbelievable playoff performer. Two potential Conn Smythe winners will be battling it out in the Eastern Conference for a right to play for the Cup. At the end of the day, I think that Tampa Bay has more “elite” talent (as much as I hate to use that reasoning) and Roloson’s will to win, will put Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup finals once again. Lightning in 7.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Round and Round...
goes the goalie carousel. The circus that is the Philadelphia Flyers goaltending situation has once again come to a head, this time on the brink of elimination from the playoffs. Once again the Flyers are mired in a "who's the #1 goalie" dilemma and at this point, the Flyers have no room for error, nor do they have time to work through this.
We'll be changing this blog a bit from the last Flyers goaltending blog, because let's face it, this is getting old for everyone. It's a broken record since the trading of Hextall to Quebec for the Lindros rights. In addition to breaking down the goalies on the roster, we'll be looking at the impending UFA's for July 1 to see who might be a good fix for this mess...if there is such a mythical beast.
Sergei Bobrovsky
We start with the brightest spot for the goaltenders. Simply put, Bobrovsky is the future of the Philadelphia Flyers in net for the foreseeable future. The man they call Bob, had a stellar outing to start the season but floundered down the stretch. The rigors of the NHL schedule, coupled to the faster pace of the North American game seemed to take their toll on the young netminder who never played more than 35 games in the season. In his rookie campaign he started 54 games, posting a 2.59 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. In his four playoff appearances this year (two starts, two in relief) his numbers rose, but was pulled early after a bad start in game 2 against Buffalo. His record is 0-1 with 3.50 goals-against average and .875 save percentage. While it's easy to say he was bad, he played absolutely beautifully in game 1 against buffalo, yielding only one goal, but was bested by Ryan Miller posting the shutout. If you have watched Bobrovsky play you know he is a young incredibly athletic netminder, and for playing without a goalie coach in Russia, he has an immense amount of raw talent. With a year or two in an NHL system, Bobrovsky will have time to develop the technical side to his game, because the athletic aspect seems to be covered quite well. He will also need to work on his puck handling as it certainly leaves something to be desired at the moment. However, barring a miracle season by Nic Riopel or Johan Backlund, Sergei Bobrovsky will be the man behind the mask.
Brian Boucher
The longest tenured Flyer goaltender, if you add up all his tours with Philadelphia organization, this being his 3rd, has had quite the story to tell. Traded to Phoenix with a 3rd round draft in 2002 for Michael Handzus and Robert Esche, then bouncing around the league, until he signed a minor league deal with the Phantoms in 07, then returning for this third tour with the Flyers in 2009. He has the most starts of anyone on the Flyers in the playoffs (42), so he has seen it all, including the 3-1 collapse against the Devils in 2000, as well as the 0-3 come from behind series win against the Boston Bruins. A well traveled journeyman, Boucher has proven his mettle more as a backup goaltender than a starter, although he does have the record for consecutive shutouts with 5. Boucher has seemingly embraced his role as the elder backup/mentor to the younger starter, a situation he knows the other side of as well. In the 1999-2000 playoff run, a younger Brian Boucher stole the starting job from veteran netminder John Vanbiesbrouck. Beezer took Boucher under his wing, and helped the young goalie with what can come along. Boucher has never been forgotten by the Flyer faithful, through all the ups and downs. Last year when injured during the Boston series, he was received warmly and loudly (see video)
Unfortunately, "Boosh" is an unrestricted free-agent, and with other goalies under contract, he will most likely be the odd man out at the end of the season. While he may not be the best or flashiest goalie in Flyers history, it seems that he will be one of the ones best remembered.
Micheal Leighton
What can be said about Michael Leighton? The man has seen almost as many teams as Mike Sillinger. A career that seemed destined to be a life of backing up, or playing in the minors took a turn last season when the Flyers, who were decimated by injures at the goalie position, claimed Leighton off wires from the Carolina Hurricanes. An insurance policy that stole the show not once, but twice. He took over for Boucher when he was injured and took the team on a dramatic run up the standings, until he too got bit by the injury bug with a high ankle sprain. Then on his first day back he had to replace Boucher who was injured in game 4 of the Boston series, and then backstopped the team to game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals. Yes, let us not forget the dreadful goal he gave up to Patrick Kane to lose, but without Leighton it's a distinct possibility the Flyers would've been golfing by then. The biggest surprise to most Flyers fans came in the off season when GM Paul Holmgren decided to sign Leighton before the free agency period, seemingly passing on many other FA goaltenders. The icing on that cake was that Leighton was hiding a nagging back injury until after he signed his contract and was forced to leave a preseason game. He spent the majority of the early season on the IR, then appeared in one game (a win 4.00 GAA) and was sent to the minors to recuperate and get more playing time, as both Bobrovsky and Boucher were playing too well to upset the balance. Called up towards the end of the season, Leighton has seen action in two games this year. Coming in relief in game 5 against Buffalo where he was solid despite giving up the OT goal, but was dreadful in game 6. Doing his best Dan Cloutier impression, a beach ball would have easily passed him. Leighton signed a two year deal last summer so he will be on the roster in some fashion, barring a trade in the offseason.
It's worth noting that Johan Backlund is also under contract with the Flyers, but his playing time is almost as elusive as Neil Little's. Look for him to be down with the Phantoms again next season. Now onto the impending UFA market. All following information will be taken from Capgeek. It is also worth noting that the salary cap is expected to rise by approximately 3million, so the Flyers will have some much needed space, but will still need to shed salary to potentially sign some of the more high priced UFA's
For the sake of sanity, and time, here is the list of the top 10 UFA goaltenders salary wise. We will whittle it down before really diving in.
Player | Pos | Team | Age | Cap Hit | Expiry |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giguere, Jean-Sebastien » | G | TOR | 33 | $6,000,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Vokoun, Tomas » | G | FLA | 34 | $5,700,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Bryzgalov, Ilya » | G | PHO | 30 | $4,250,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Leclaire, Pascal » | G | OTT | 28 | $3,800,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Roloson, Dwayne » | G | TBL | 41 | $2,500,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Smith, Mike » | G | TBL | 29 | $2,200,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Hedberg, Johan » | G | NJD | 38 | $1,500,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Osgood, Chris » | G | DET | 38 | $1,416,667 | 2011 (UFA) |
Turco, Marty » | G | CHI | 35 | $1,300,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Conklin, Ty » | G | STL | 35 | $1,300,000 | 2011 (UFA) |
Immediately, let's strike off all backups off this list. So adios to Conklin, Osgood, Smith, Turco, Hedburg. That leaves the top 5 goalies on this list, but it's safe to say that Pascal Leclaire will be looking for work anywhere, but I can't even imagine the Flyers taking this kind of risk. So the four that are left are Giguere, Vokoun, Bryzgalov and Roloson. One would expect Roloson to either re-sign with Tampa Bay or retire, depending on their post season run so we rule him out. Giguere will certainly be available as Toronto has James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson on their roster, and Reimer has staked his claim to the starting position for the Leafs. Giguere also brings a winning pedigree, capturing both the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe trophy in 2007 with the (then) Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. The drawbacks to Giguere are his potential salary demands and his durability. He has missed 20 games this season due to recurring groin/"lower body" injuries. While he isn't on par with Rick DiPietro in terms of injuries, it is a cause for concern. Wherever he ends up, the team will need a capable backup.
Tomas Vokoun has been one of the best goalies with a losing record. Playing down in Florida, he's averaging a save percentage of .923 and a goals-against average of 2.56. Respectable numbers for a goalie on a team that has been in the bottom of the league during his tenure. While that could be seen as a reflection of his abilities, it comes down to the team in front of him, which to be kind has been...well awful. There were surely be teams knocking on Vokoun's door July 1, and assuming his asking price is right, the Flyers are sure to have their fist on his door. Obvious drawbacks are that he has little playoff expirience, and he was a loser in both series, although his numbers were impressive.
Ilya Bryzgalov is the last on the list and is already being coveted by some, including one of the Flyer's beat writers. Since being claimed off waivers by the Phoenix Coyotes, Bryzgalov has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, helping to take Phoenix out of the basement and into the playoffs for consecutive seasons. He has posted 21 shutouts during his tenure in the desert, including 15 in the last two seasons. Ilya has become of the elite goaltenders in the league. With the ownership issue in Phoenix STILL unresolved and possibility of moving back to Winnipeg, a move Bryzgalov has already commented on with disapproval, he seems the most likely to move out of the desert. He is also the cheapest of the top three on the list, although he would most certainly be looking for a raise. His most recent playoff performance will call for some detractors to say he won't be worth it, but his track record over the past few seasons have been impressive, and at 30, there's still plenty of gas left in the tank.
A far more pressing concern will be finding the space to sign a new goaltender. While the cap is expected to rise, the Flyers have key FA's to re-sign and other line up issues to address. Whatever happens the rest of the playoffs for the Flyers, they will certainly need to find a way to fix the glaring problems not only in their net, but in front as well. Watching the Flyers, their team defense has been terrible, and they seemingly lack the heart of last season's team. At the end of the day, this season will be looked at as a failure, barring another miraculous come back and then hoisting the Cup, but the blue print for success is there. Now is the time to finally put them all together.