Monday, May 16, 2011

This is the song that doesn't end

yes it goes on and on my friends. No, we're not talking about Lambchop, but the idea of a team relocating to Winnipeg. Well, one thing is for certain, it won't be the Coyotes. Now all eyes have turned to Atlanta, Ga to see if the Thrashers will be the new Jets...or if they'll have another name.

With the city of Glendale voting to keep the Coyotes in the desert for next year, the good folks of True North have elected to pursue the Thrashers. While no one likes to see a team move, due to the loss of jobs and obvious fan desertion, the question is where were the fans all along? The Thrashers and Coyotes have one thing in common; they lose money. since 2005 the Thrashers have lost $130 million dollars. For you lazy types, that's 21.6million dollar lost per season. It's almost like they're still paying Marion Hossa. Seriously though, this is a team that has no viable support locally. The ownership has been looking for a buyer for at least six years. Disinterested ownership and a lackluster fan base is disaster for any team. There are now grass root movements to keep the Thrashers in Atlanta, but to these people I ask, where have you been?

The upside for the Thrashers, wherever they end up, is two fold. For starters, they have a young nucleus of players and they have shown improvement the past few seasons, despite not making the playoffs. Smart drafting and young talent is a great recipe for success. They currently have 21million in cap space. Assuming they get an owner that is committed to winning (see: Buffalo Sabres) and they take on some salary they can become more of a realistic threat within the Southeast Division. Now don't go reading that thinking I'm saying they're Cup contenders, but they are on the right track. Slow and steady wins the race right? The second part is a bit more ambitious and contingent on them actually relocating (assuming Winnipeg). They will be in a more hockey friendly community and in theory make more money. More money means that a team can spend more, and spending can lead to winning. This really all boils down to money.

At the end of the day, hockey is a business. Despite all our attachments to teams and players, and we all know how emotional we can be as fans (see touching Derek Boogaard memorial in Minnesota the other day), they aren't given to us out of the goodness of the league/owners' hearts. They are a commodity and an investment. I will not sit here and say that non traditional hockey markets like Atlanta and Phoenix are doomed to fail, as there are plenty of markets not normally associated with hockey that are thriving. Look at all three California teams. The Kings have been in the league since 1967 and they have yet to win the Cup, but are sustained by a loyal fan base, and a sports friendly town. Also Nashville is finding success in a town known more for giant belt buckles and cowboy hats than ice skates and hockey helmets. Hockey can work almost anywhere it seems, but if the cities of Glendale and Atlanta have taught us anything, it's that it's not working there. I'm not saying any team needs to be moved for the sake of moving, but when will enough be enough? The NHL is already knee deep in the Coyotes saga, how much longer before the Thrashers are caught up in the mix too?


And now with that said and done, assuming the the Thrashers do in fact move to Winnipeg, there will need to be realignment in the NHL. Well there doesn't have to be, but I can only imagine a back to back home and home series between the Winnipeg Whatevers and Florida Panthers. That second game would be boring as well with a nice 2400mile commute. So let us break down how the league is set up now, and how it could (and in my opinion SHOULD) change. There are only 3 divisions listed simply because I can't see this affecting any more than the divisions listed.

Southeast Division: (currently)

Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
Atlanta Thrashers
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning

Northwest Division: (currently)

Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Colorado Avalance
Calgary Flames
Minnesota Wild

Central Division: (Currently)

Detroit Redwings
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus Bluejackets
St. Louis Blues

Now if Atlanta moves to Winnipeg it stands to reason that they will be in the Northwest Division, in which case this is the most likely of scenarios.

Northwest Division: (Realigned)

Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers
Winnipeg
Calgary Flames
Colorado/Minnesota

Either Minnesota or Colorado will mostly be the odd man out in the division. A lot of people are suggesting Minnesota be the most likely candidate out of the Division and it makes sense geographically, but the idea of Colorado moving to the Central Division could be great, and hopefully reignite the Avalanche/Red Wings rivalry.

Central Division: (Realigned)
Detroit Red Wings
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus/Nashville
Colorado/Minnesota

Again people are saying Detroit wants to come back east, but I think they're too big a draw for Western market teams. Detroit is a team you want to see when they come to town, whether you love or hate them. So for now anyway, I pick them to stay in the Central. As listed before, I can see the Avalanche or the Wild come over from the Northwest, and the odd men out in the Central are either Columbus or Nashville. Going back to the geographical debate, Nashville is the most likely candidate to move into the Southeast division. It's close to all other teams in the divisions, and gives great exposure to a team that deserves all it can get. Great team hockey and terrific coach. It also gives the Eastern media a chance to see great players like Pekka Rinne and Shea Weber on a more consistent basis. It's a win win for the league and the Predators. I think that's something almost everyone can get behind. Well everyone that doesn't live in Atlanta anyway. So after all that, here it is. I think it looks like a pretty good division.



Southwest Division: (realigned)

Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nashville Predators

Friday, May 13, 2011

8 down, 8 to go.

We’re halfway home. The Conference Finals start Saturday the 14th and well, we’ve come this far, so let’s break down the match ups and pick some winners. Although last round predictions were terrible going one for four so let’s see if this will be better or worse.

Western Conference Finals
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #2 San Jose Sharks

The age old battle of the choke off. Which team wants to lose marginally less is how most people are looking at this. Both teams blew 3-0 series leads this year, only to win their respective game 7’s in dramatic fashion. The Canucks gave up a one goal lead inside of the final two minutes of regulation against the Blackhawks in the first round to conjure up shades of the past two years where they were eliminated by Chicago in the conference semis. Somehow, Chicago managed to beat themselves in OT and Vancouver moved on to face Nashville who they defeated in six games.
The Sharks had their own little voyage of “they’re going to blow it…again” moments this year as well. After defeated the injury depleted Los Angeles Kings in six games, they faced Detroit, a team they faced in the second round last year as well, and handily beat in five games. San Jose are the poster boys for post season futility, as they consistently perform well in the regular season, but fail to win when it counts. They advanced to the Conference Finals last year, but were swept by eventual cup winners Chicago.

Breakdown: The Canucks have a lot of pressure on them, having won the President’s Trophy this season and advancing to the Conference Finals for the first time since 1994, when they advanced to the Stanley Cup finals, losing to the New York Rangers in seven games. The Sharks have never been to the Cup finals, but are looking to shake their underachieving reputation once and for all with a trip of their own. San Jose has a bit of history on their side this year. He currently stands between the pipes and goes by the name Antti Niemi. He was in goal last year for the Chicago Blackhawks when they dispatched the Canucks, and I’m surely the Sharks are hoping he continues his winning ways against them.
While the Sedins have been relatively MIA this post season, the play of Ryan Kesler has been simply outstanding for Vancouver. 11 of his 15 postseason points came in the series against Nashville, and he appears to be finding his groove, which is something the Sharks can ill afford to let continue. Offensively both teams are rather well balanced in terms of depth, but you have to give the edge defensively, at least on paper, to Vancouver. So far Luongo has played well, outlasting Corey Crawford and Pekka Rinne but given Nashville’s lackluster offensive numbers, that wasn’t a huge task. The Sharks are a much more offensively gifted team than Nashville was, and he will need to play some of the best hockey of his career to advance the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 16 years.

Bottom Line: Sharks in 6. I believe that Antti Niemi will be the better goaltender in the series, but given the actual clutch play of “Jumbo” Joe Thorton, the Sharks are finally getting playoff production from their top players. If Vancouver cannot get that same kind of production from the Sedins, this series will be over pretty much before it began.


Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Boston Bruins vs #5 Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning waste no time. This is their first playoff appearance in four years and here they are now, four wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals. The Boston Bruins on the other hand haven’t been to the Conference Finals since 1992. Tampa Bay has had a remarkable run this post season. Coming from 3-1 down to eliminate the Crosby/Malkin-less Penguins, they then went on to sweep the top seeded Washington Capitals, where they managed to make them regress a few seasons in a matter of a few periods. The Tampa Bay Lightning also have one of the most dynamic playoff goaltenders in Dwayne Roloson. This guy is practically unbeatable in elimination games, and he carried the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals in 06, where if not for his injury in game one, many believe they would’ve won the Cup.
The Boston Bruins have no slouch between their pipes either. All but guaranteed a second Vezina trophy for his absolutely dominating performance this season, Tim Thomas has returned to the form he seemingly lost a year ago. The Bruins defeated their bitter rivals the Montreal Canadiens in a seven game classic series in the opening round before having their way with the Flyers in a four game sweep in the Conference semifinals. A balanced attack and solid team defense, along with Thomas stopping almost everything that comes his way makes the Bruins a tough out this post season.

Breakdown: Tampa Bay is getting scoring from the unlikeliest of places. Vinny Lecavalier. While that seems like a joke, Vinny hasn’t been his 50 goal self in a long time, and he is finding his touch this post season, as he is second on the team with 12 points, behind Martin St. Louis with 13. Other unlikely scorers are former Islander Sean Bergenheim. He has 8 points (7, 1) in 11 games. His career high regular season numbers are 29 points (14, 15) which he scored this year. It’s not impossible to think that he can match his regular season goal total in the playoffs this year. Steve Downie also continues to thrive down in Tampa as he is tied with Lecavalier for points in the playoffs. If Steven Stamkos can start to contribute regularly (4g, 2a, -2) this Tampa Bay Lightning team will become even scarier.
The Bruins finally got some scoring from Milan Lucic in the second round where most of, if not all, of his points came in the series against the Flyers. He and Nathan Horton have found some chemistry and they are a dangerous pair coming down the wing. The biggest concern for Boston is the loss of leading playoff scorer Patrice Bergeron, who was concussed on a questionable hit from Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux. Taking his place in the lineup will be 19 year old rookie Tyler Seguin. Seguin doesn’t bring the complete game Bergeron has, but he has speed, an excellent skill set and youthful energy. It’s unlikely he will produce the kind of points that Bergeron did, but he can give the Lightning one more thing to think about. David Krejci and Nathan Horton will be looked on to contribute more in the points department, but after watching Krejci in the Philly series, that shouldn’t be a problem. Look to Tim Thomas once again to stop the vast majority of pucks thrown his way. He will be there to bail the Bruins out should any type of defensive lapse or breakdown occurs.

Bottom Line: This will be a great goaltending match up to watch. Tim Thomas is a Vezina winner and Rollie the ageless goalie is simply an unbelievable playoff performer. Two potential Conn Smythe winners will be battling it out in the Eastern Conference for a right to play for the Cup. At the end of the day, I think that Tampa Bay has more “elite” talent (as much as I hate to use that reasoning) and Roloson’s will to win, will put Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup finals once again. Lightning in 7.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Round and Round...


goes the goalie carousel. The circus that is the Philadelphia Flyers goaltending situation has once again come to a head, this time on the brink of elimination from the playoffs. Once again the Flyers are mired in a "who's the #1 goalie" dilemma and at this point, the Flyers have no room for error, nor do they have time to work through this.

We'll be changing this blog a bit from the last Flyers goaltending blog, because let's face it, this is getting old for everyone. It's a broken record since the trading of Hextall to Quebec for the Lindros rights. In addition to breaking down the goalies on the roster, we'll be looking at the impending UFA's for July 1 to see who might be a good fix for this mess...if there is such a mythical beast.


Sergei Bobrovsky
We start with the brightest spot for the goaltenders. Simply put, Bobrovsky is the future of the Philadelphia Flyers in net for the foreseeable future. The man they call Bob, had a stellar outing to start the season but floundered down the stretch. The rigors of the NHL schedule, coupled to the faster pace of the North American game seemed to take their toll on the young netminder who never played more than 35 games in the season. In his rookie campaign he started 54 games, posting a 2.59 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. In his four playoff appearances this year (two starts, two in relief) his numbers rose, but was pulled early after a bad start in game 2 against Buffalo. His record is 0-1 with 3.50 goals-against average and .875 save percentage. While it's easy to say he was bad, he played absolutely beautifully in game 1 against buffalo, yielding only one goal, but was bested by Ryan Miller posting the shutout. If you have watched Bobrovsky play you know he is a young incredibly athletic netminder, and for playing without a goalie coach in Russia, he has an immense amount of raw talent. With a year or two in an NHL system, Bobrovsky will have time to develop the technical side to his game, because the athletic aspect seems to be covered quite well. He will also need to work on his puck handling as it certainly leaves something to be desired at the moment. However, barring a miracle season by Nic Riopel or Johan Backlund, Sergei Bobrovsky will be the man behind the mask.

Brian Boucher
The longest tenured Flyer goaltender, if you add up all his tours with Philadelphia organization, this being his 3rd, has had quite the story to tell. Traded to Phoenix with a 3rd round draft in 2002 for Michael Handzus and Robert Esche, then bouncing around the league, until he signed a minor league deal with the Phantoms in 07, then returning for this third tour with the Flyers in 2009. He has the most starts of anyone on the Flyers in the playoffs (42), so he has seen it all, including the 3-1 collapse against the Devils in 2000, as well as the 0-3 come from behind series win against the Boston Bruins. A well traveled journeyman, Boucher has proven his mettle more as a backup goaltender than a starter, although he does have the record for consecutive shutouts with 5. Boucher has seemingly embraced his role as the elder backup/mentor to the younger starter, a situation he knows the other side of as well. In the 1999-2000 playoff run, a younger Brian Boucher stole the starting job from veteran netminder John Vanbiesbrouck. Beezer took Boucher under his wing, and helped the young goalie with what can come along. Boucher has never been forgotten by the Flyer faithful, through all the ups and downs. Last year when injured during the Boston series, he was received warmly and loudly (see video)



Unfortunately, "Boosh" is an unrestricted free-agent, and with other goalies under contract, he will most likely be the odd man out at the end of the season. While he may not be the best or flashiest goalie in Flyers history, it seems that he will be one of the ones best remembered.

Micheal Leighton
What can be said about Michael Leighton? The man has seen almost as many teams as Mike Sillinger. A career that seemed destined to be a life of backing up, or playing in the minors took a turn last season when the Flyers, who were decimated by injures at the goalie position, claimed Leighton off wires from the Carolina Hurricanes. An insurance policy that stole the show not once, but twice. He took over for Boucher when he was injured and took the team on a dramatic run up the standings, until he too got bit by the injury bug with a high ankle sprain. Then on his first day back he had to replace Boucher who was injured in game 4 of the Boston series, and then backstopped the team to game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals. Yes, let us not forget the dreadful goal he gave up to Patrick Kane to lose, but without Leighton it's a distinct possibility the Flyers would've been golfing by then. The biggest surprise to most Flyers fans came in the off season when GM Paul Holmgren decided to sign Leighton before the free agency period, seemingly passing on many other FA goaltenders. The icing on that cake was that Leighton was hiding a nagging back injury until after he signed his contract and was forced to leave a preseason game. He spent the majority of the early season on the IR, then appeared in one game (a win 4.00 GAA) and was sent to the minors to recuperate and get more playing time, as both Bobrovsky and Boucher were playing too well to upset the balance. Called up towards the end of the season, Leighton has seen action in two games this year. Coming in relief in game 5 against Buffalo where he was solid despite giving up the OT goal, but was dreadful in game 6. Doing his best Dan Cloutier impression, a beach ball would have easily passed him. Leighton signed a two year deal last summer so he will be on the roster in some fashion, barring a trade in the offseason.

It's worth noting that Johan Backlund is also under contract with the Flyers, but his playing time is almost as elusive as Neil Little's. Look for him to be down with the Phantoms again next season. Now onto the impending UFA market. All following information will be taken from Capgeek. It is also worth noting that the salary cap is expected to rise by approximately 3million, so the Flyers will have some much needed space, but will still need to shed salary to potentially sign some of the more high priced UFA's

For the sake of sanity, and time, here is the list of the top 10 UFA goaltenders salary wise. We will whittle it down before really diving in.

PlayerPosTeamAgeCap HitExpiry
Giguere, Jean-Sebastien »GTOR33$6,000,0002011 (UFA)
Vokoun, Tomas »GFLA34$5,700,0002011 (UFA)
Bryzgalov, Ilya »GPHO30$4,250,0002011 (UFA)
Leclaire, Pascal »GOTT28$3,800,0002011 (UFA)
Roloson, Dwayne »GTBL41$2,500,0002011 (UFA)
Smith, Mike »GTBL29$2,200,0002011 (UFA)
Hedberg, Johan »GNJD38$1,500,0002011 (UFA)
Osgood, Chris »GDET38$1,416,6672011 (UFA)
Turco, Marty »GCHI35$1,300,0002011 (UFA)
Conklin, Ty »GSTL35$1,300,0002011 (UFA)

Immediately, let's strike off all backups off this list. So adios to Conklin, Osgood, Smith, Turco, Hedburg. That leaves the top 5 goalies on this list, but it's safe to say that Pascal Leclaire will be looking for work anywhere, but I can't even imagine the Flyers taking this kind of risk. So the four that are left are Giguere, Vokoun, Bryzgalov and Roloson. One would expect Roloson to either re-sign with Tampa Bay or retire, depending on their post season run so we rule him out. Giguere will certainly be available as Toronto has James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson on their roster, and Reimer has staked his claim to the starting position for the Leafs. Giguere also brings a winning pedigree, capturing both the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe trophy in 2007 with the (then) Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. The drawbacks to Giguere are his potential salary demands and his durability. He has missed 20 games this season due to recurring groin/"lower body" injuries. While he isn't on par with Rick DiPietro in terms of injuries, it is a cause for concern. Wherever he ends up, the team will need a capable backup.

Tomas Vokoun has been one of the best goalies with a losing record. Playing down in Florida, he's averaging a save percentage of .923 and a goals-against average of 2.56. Respectable numbers for a goalie on a team that has been in the bottom of the league during his tenure. While that could be seen as a reflection of his abilities, it comes down to the team in front of him, which to be kind has been...well awful. There were surely be teams knocking on Vokoun's door July 1, and assuming his asking price is right, the Flyers are sure to have their fist on his door. Obvious drawbacks are that he has little playoff expirience, and he was a loser in both series, although his numbers were impressive.

Ilya Bryzgalov is the last on the list and is already being coveted by some, including one of the Flyer's beat writers. Since being claimed off waivers by the Phoenix Coyotes, Bryzgalov has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, helping to take Phoenix out of the basement and into the playoffs for consecutive seasons. He has posted 21 shutouts during his tenure in the desert, including 15 in the last two seasons. Ilya has become of the elite goaltenders in the league. With the ownership issue in Phoenix STILL unresolved and possibility of moving back to Winnipeg, a move Bryzgalov has already commented on with disapproval, he seems the most likely to move out of the desert. He is also the cheapest of the top three on the list, although he would most certainly be looking for a raise. His most recent playoff performance will call for some detractors to say he won't be worth it, but his track record over the past few seasons have been impressive, and at 30, there's still plenty of gas left in the tank.


A far more pressing concern will be finding the space to sign a new goaltender. While the cap is expected to rise, the Flyers have key FA's to re-sign and other line up issues to address. Whatever happens the rest of the playoffs for the Flyers, they will certainly need to find a way to fix the glaring problems not only in their net, but in front as well. Watching the Flyers, their team defense has been terrible, and they seemingly lack the heart of last season's team. At the end of the day, this season will be looked at as a failure, barring another miraculous come back and then hoisting the Cup, but the blue print for success is there. Now is the time to finally put them all together.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

and now the east


(hey NHL, the picture is yours i know. i'm not saying it's mine. don't sue me jerks)


The Eastern Conference wrapped up its quarterfinal rounds tonight in dramatic fashion. Montreal and Boston went into OT, where Boston actually won a game 7, and Tampa Bay came back from being down 3-1 in the series to ride out a last minute penalty to defeat the Penguins at the Consol Energy Center. We now officially have our match ups, so it's time to break them down.


#1 Washington Capitals vs #5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Regular season results, Washington wins 4-2 (3-1-1 tampa bay)

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Rangers, erasing some dubious history of losing a series after being up 2-0. Michael Neuvirth has been excellent, even in loses for the Caps. Look for him to continue starting for the Caps to start this series. Meanwhile Southeast Division rivals, the Tampa Bay Lighting, have fought back from the brink of elimination to advance to the next round. Dwayne Roloson has been huge for the Lightning since being acquired from the New York Islanders earlier in the season.

Washington Capitals: The Capitals are past the first round, and they beat an excellent goaltender to do it. The commitment to team defense has really paid off. All of their regular season adversity has really seemed to make this a better club this spring. While, one player does not make a team, the deadline acquisition of Jason Arnott certainly hasn't hurt. The goaltending carousel has stopped on Michael Neuvirth and he has yet to disappoint. Washington will need to get more scoring out of Backstrom who has a points in the first series. Yes, not even a number, but a letter of points. The trio of Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin will need to step up for Washington as Tampa Bay is more offensively gifted than the Rangers.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay has really come into their own under first year head coach Guy Boucher. Given the talent this team has up front, it's not so much as surprise as it is a relief. The Lighting have a goaltending merry-go-round of their own, as four goaltenders have played for them this season. When the ride finally stopped Rollie the ageless goalie, Dwayne Roloson, has emerged as their starter and he is on a mission. Twice in his career, before the series against Pittsburgh, he has lead a team back from being down 3-1 and almost singlehandedly won a cup in Edmonton. It's hard to recall an injury to one player being so significant to a team, than Roloson going down in '06. With the team he has in front of him, it's very possible that Roloson can will this team back to their first Cup final appearance since their win in 2004.

Breakdown: Look for goals, and lots of opportunities. Neither of these teams are defensive juggernauts, but they are capable of keeping games close. At the end of the day though, these are two teams who are more comfortable scoring goals than preventing them. With that said, goalies will still be called upon to make crucial saves to give their teams a chance to win.

Bottom line: Bolts in 7. Look for this series to be a back and forth battle. As good as Neuvirth has been good, Roloson knows what it takes to win and will be a deciding factor in this series.


#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs #3 Boston Bruins
Regular season results, Boston won 2-1-1

The Flyers have once again staged a comeback in the playoffs, battling back from 3-2 to defeat Buffalo in an exciting series. Boston was engaged in one of the oldest rivalries in the NHL with the Montreal Canadiens. In a series where the home teams were both 1-2 before game seven. Boston was the aggressor getting leads and holding them for periods of time, but the Habs continually battled back and forced overtime where they ultimately lost thanks to Nathan Horton. The win has set up a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference semi final, where the Flyers became only the third team in the NHL to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win a series. In that monumental game seven the Bruins managed to blow a 3-0 lead. This series is going to be epic

Philadelphia Flyers: Well we can't talk about how determined this team is, or the talent from the the fowards to the defense. No, the only thing that matters in Philadelphia is goaltending. Will it be Boucher? Bob? Leighton? It doesn't matter that Danny Briere leads the league this postseason with goals, or that Claude Giroux leads the postseason with assists and is second in points and Timmo Kimmonen leads the league at +9. None of that matters since they don't have a superstar goaltender capable of stopping shots from five different angles at once. While goaltending is certainly a concern, Brian Boucher has been more than up to the task of backstopping the Flyers. With the exception of a terrible stretch during game 5, Boucher has been excellent between the pipes for Philadelphia. He's 3rd among all goalies in the playoffs in goals-against average (not including Lindback or Niittymaki who came in relief for their respective clubs). Their abysmal power play has shown signs of improvement since Chris Pronger has returned to the lineup, scoring critical goals in both games 6 and 7.

Boston Bruins: The Big Bad Bruins are more than capable of playing physically, yet they seemed content to let the faster Canadiens move as they pleased. They will need to up their physical play against the Flyers, a team who can bang and move. The Bruins have an undeniable edge in net with Tim Thomas who had one of the best regular seasons in recent memory. They're going up against a team who can put a lot of rubber on net. Timmy Thomas will need to be at his best to keep the Bruins in the game. The Bruins will need to improve their special teams, especially their power play which was absolutely dreadful against Montreal. The Flyers kill penalties aggressively and the Bruins will need to be smart with the puck, or they will give up shorties. Chris Kelly has been an excellent pick up for them in the post season. He leads the team in goals and is second on the team in points. Look for him to continue his steady play against the Flyers.

Breakdown: This should be a very physical series, as both teams are able to bang bodies and dish out some punishment. The key will be special teams. The Flyers are looking to be clicking on the power play, while the Bruins power play is powerless. This is one of the more evenly matched series we will see this post season and should be an exciting one. The Flyers entered the playoffs on a terrible run, but picked it up in the series against Buffalo. The Bruins were in a tight division race all year and rode the back of Tim Thomas to the third seed. The speed of the Habs showed their weaknesses, but given the history between these teams, expect this to be hard hitting and nasty. Boston will want revenge for last year, and the Flyers will look to get a lead and stay on top.

Bottom Line: Flyers in 6. Given the officiating this post season, and both teams ability to sit in the sin bin, special teams will be crucial to this series. Boston will need to find a way to score on the power play, otherwise they will have to completely dominate five-on-five play to get to the conference finals. The Flyers will also need to continue to find success on the power play. Tim Thomas is more than capable of stealing games, so scoring when you have the man advantage will be huge.

Western Conference Semifinals

While the east is currently wrapping up in dramatic fashion, the West is ready to go so let's take a look at the match up for the Western Conference Semifinals. just a note. I was 3 for 4 with western conference picks. Not bad for my first "official" predictions.

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #5 Nashville Predators
Regular season results, series split 2-2

The Canucks barely escaped a monumental collapse against the 8th seeded Chicago Blackhawks, while the defensive minded, disciplined Nashville Predators moved past the Anaheim Ducks for their first ever playoff series win.

Vancouver Canucks: The Canucks blew a 3-0 series lead against the banged up Chicago Blackhawks and also lost their 1-0 lead in game seven with less than 2 minutes to go. While they did manage to win in OT, the Canucks have to be shaken. GM Mike Gillis was fined by the NHL after voicing his displeasure with the officiating in the series, and some of the Canucks players have had less than complimentary things to say about letting Chicago comeback. Luongo will still be this team's question mark, and going up against a Vezina candidate in Pekka Rinne, the pressure will be on to perform.

Nashville Predators: Finally over the hump! After numerous appearances in the playoffs, the Predators have finally won a playoff series. They did it the way they have always won, with a solid team effort on defense and taking advantage of their chances. Look for the trend to continue. The Canucks are a deeper team, but still rely heavily on their top 6, well the Sedins +4. Expect to see a lot of Weber and Suter this series as they will be tasked with stopping the twins.

Breakdown: Another David and Goliath match up for the Predators. It is clear that Barry Trotz has the faith of his players, and they believe in each other and the system. Vancouver has the deeper line up, but Nashville played them tight all year, and I expect the confidence they have from dismissing the Ducks to give them some swagger coming into this round.

Bottom Line: Nashville in 7. Yeah, I said it. The Vancouver coaching staff is lacking confidence in Luongo, despite what they might say publicly. Pekka will need to step up his game, as he will be facing the majority of the shots this series, but at the end of the day I think the confidence and belief in themselves that the Predators have will get them over the hump.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs #3 Detroit Redwings
Regular season results, San Jose won 3-1

Detroit comes in with the longest break between rounds after the sweep of the Phoenix Coyotes, while San Jose comes off the hard fought series win against the Los Angeles Kings. The rest will do Detroit wonders as they've had time to rest key players and nurse injuries. San Jose comes off a gutsy win in game six against the Kings and look to build on their momentum.

San Jose Sharks: Another year, another playoff series. A rematch of last year's semifinals where they easily defeated the Detroit Redwings. This isn't last year though. As cliche as it is, their best players will need to be their best players. Marleau, Heatley and Thorton will have to play hard as will Clowe, Couture and Setoguchi. If they can get secondary scoring from players like Wellwood, the Sharks will be tough to beat. Also Niemi will need to put the doubters to rest and return to Cup winning form and not give up three goals on four shots again.

Detroit Redwings: The Redwings easily defeated the Phoenix Coyotes without one of their best players in Henrik Zetterberg. Look for Hank's return to start the series as well as well rested Lidstom and Datsyuk. Franzen will also be rested, and hopefully looking a little less like Franzenstein. The biggest question mark for the Wings, as it has been all season will be the play of Jimmy Howard. He will need to play his best hockey of the year against a team with the scoring talent of San Jose.

Breakdown: This will be one of the more intense match ups of the playoffs. Detroit showed that even without their best player, they're still one of the best teams in the league. The addition of Zetterberg will be huge for the Wings. The Sharks have the edge in goal, but the Wings are an entirely different animal come playoff time, and they will be incredibly tough to beat.

Bottom Line: Detroit in 6. No need to explain any further. They're the Wings. you can't spell wings without win. holy puck, did I really just say that?

Monday, April 18, 2011

What about Bob




AKA: Ring around the Rosie, Are You Pucking Kidding Me, Broad Street Bullshit. Or for the neo-cons out there, Bobrovsky Shrugs

It's April, that means two things; the playoffs are here and the Flyers goaltending is being questioned. Although to be fair, it's questioned year round. The season started with questions of whether or not the inability to land a number one net minder would spell doom for the flyers. Then the reports of Michael Leighton being hurt gave way for the the emergence of Russian prospect, Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob, as he's now known, came out in pre-season, if for nothing else than to get a look at him playing the North American game. He came over from the KHL's equivalent of the Edmonton Oilers and had decent numbers there. Undrafted, the Flyers signed him to a deal. It is my belief that Bob was to start in Adirondack with Johan Backlund, but the injury to Michael Leighton along with Bob's excellent pre-season appearances changed all that.

So the season goes on, and Bob plays well. There were even rumblings of Bob being a Calder Trophy candidate, and with good merit in the first half of the season. One thing that people have often overlooked, and it's now coming to the forefront, is that Bob has never played any more than 35 games in a professional season in Russia. Couple that to the fact that the European game is more deliberate than the faster more physical North American game, and it makes for one tired rookie. Even if Bob has been reluctant to admit it this season, it looks like he might be hitting the wall. Bob has always said the right things after games and put the effort in out on the ice, but after Game 1 he refused to talk to the media. It's entirely understandable as he turned in a solid performance, but couldn't hold on for the win. It's understandable to be upset after a loss, and he is still just a 22 year old rookie, which seems to be forgotten sometimes, and these ups and downs of a season are part of the growing process. It's just unfortunate for Bob that he's starting to struggle at the most crucial time: playoff time.

Given his play down the stretch and into this opening round, the team has to go with better goaltender. Coming off the bench early in game 2, Brian Boucher played well, allowing only 1 goal in 40+ minutes of relief. Brian Boucher has been the consummate professional this year. After being signed as a backup last season to Ray Emery only to lose his job, twice to waiver pick up Michael Leighton, he has never once complained or done anything other than his job. This season is no different. He comes into camp with a chance to win the starting job, only to lose it to a kid. An unknown kid at that. Once again he has embraced his position, and has served a role that he has once been familiar with, albeit on the other side. In his rookie campaign, also with the Flyers, he played ahead of John Vanbiesbrouck, Beezer acted like a mentor to the young Boucher and he is now returning the favor as best he can to Bobrovsky. Quietly, as seems to be his M.O., Boucher has turned in one of his best seasons and leads the team in most goaltending statistical categories , (.916 SV% 2.42 GAA to Bob's .915 2.59 GAA).

So Boucher enters the playoffs and relief, and is now the starter for the Flyers. Stands to reason that Bobrovsky would be the backup, however this is the Philadelphia Flyers. Dressing tonight for the backup is none other than Michael Leighton. Leighton, who started the year on IR, made one appearance (a win 1-0-0 4.00 gaa .889 with the big club this season) before being assigned to Adirondack to get playing time and heal. He was re-called with a few days to go in the regular season, admist speculation as to whether or not he would clear re-entry waivers. Well he did, and he was a healthy scratch, until this evening. Whether or not Leighton will get any action this season remains to be seen, but right now this is Brian Boucher's job to lose.

Have the Flyers soured on Sergei Bobrovsky so quickly? I honestly don't think so, but Boucher has almost a zen-like calming influence on the Flyers right now, and he has been solid all year, so you go with the "hot" goalie, if 2+ periods of hockey makes a goalie hot. To come full circle, what about Bob? In the long run, one has to expect that Bob will be fine. He is still a young kid who can barely speak the language, and still has a lot to learn about the the nuances of the game, as well as its physicality. This could actually be good for him in terms of his development. No one can deny the contributions that Bob has made to this team. He helped this team jump out to a dominating division and conference lead earlier in the year. The play of the entire team was the reason for the Flyers slipping to the 2nd seed in the East, and cannot be placed on one player. If there are to be any criticisms to be made about Bob's performance at all this season, it is his tendency to go down early. "Shoot high" is the mantra when playing against the Flyers, and with good reason. What I have noticed is that Bob actually makes himself smaller at times when making the save. The one thing you hear from every coach, analysts and other so called "experts" (aka know it all motherpuckers with blogs) is that goalies need to make themselves larger, take away the open space. Bob's athleticism is second to none, and he is still young and goalies are slower to develop than skaters. Sam Carchidi has commented that Bob needs to bulk up a bit to be tougher covering the puck, and I would have to agree. Look to Bob to come into camp this summer hungrier and with a possible chip on his shoulder. Despite the talented goaltenders in the organization (Joacim Eriksson and Nic Riopel especially), the future of the Flyers will be in the hands of Sergei Bobrovsky. In a town that has notoriously looked for the next one in net, something they haven't had since Hextall's first go round in Philadelphia, Bob has given Philly phaithful plenty to be hopeful about. He's young, athletic and hungry. Look for #35 between the pipes for a long time. In the meantime we all have to remember, he's still a kid.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Wild Wild West

Eastern conference is covered, so we'll head over to the Western Conference. These should be some epic match ups. At least in theory.


#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #8 Chicago Blackhawks
Regular Season results, Vancouver Wins series 2-1-1

Vancouver Canucks have run away with the regular season winning the Presidents Trophy, have potentially the first brothers to win consecutive Art Ross trophies (and possible Hart Trophies) and a goaltending duo who have won the William M. Jennings trophy, one of whom could be a Vezina winner as well. The Canucks are a team that on paper looks unbeatable. The Hawks on the other hand lost their last game of the season, and had to hold their collective breath while they waited the results of the Dallas-Minnesota match up to see if they would make it. The cap issues they've had, coupled with some injuries to key players have made this season quite the roller coaster ride for Chicago. As they say, win and you're in and while they didn't win, they're still in, and that's enough.

Vancouver Canucks: As stated by their accolades above, the Canucks are impressive on paper. On the ice, they're not too shabby either. With a defense core deeper than just about any other team in the league and they have a nice mix of high end talent and depth fowards. Added to their goaltender who is having a career year, and the Canucks seem unbeatable. I have to admit that I still have my doubts about Luongo in the post season. The Canucks have been a good team for a few years, but Luongo has been prone to collapsing under pressure. With the weight of being the best regular season team, which seems to have a curse of its own, and coupled with his own track record I have to wonder if he will be able to get the Canucks to hoist the Cup.

Chicago Blackhawks: How many times can we mention how Chicago was dismantled after their Stanley Cup victory last season? Well we're gonna do it again, because it's an important part of thier story. The vital core remained in tact as Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith and Seabrook all returned. What they lost, and what seemed replaceable, were their depth players. Credit where it's due as the Hawks tried to replace them, but as evident by their play against the Red Wings sunday afternoon, they couldn't match up against the top end players of the opposition. Also the play of Cory Crawford has been good, but he hasn't been up to the level of Niemi during the stretch run, and it's unknown how he'll respond to the rigors of playoff hockey.

Breakdown: The Blackhawks have had the Canucks number the past two years in the Western Conference semis, but these were both two different teams. The Hawks have been dismantled and patchworked back together. The Canucks have slowly built themselves into a powerhouse. Vancouver looks like they have the pieces to finally get over their playoff nemesis in the Blackhawks.

Bottom Line: Canucks in 6. Hawks will remain competitive throughout the series, but the tide is turning for the Canucks. Crawford's inexpirience will be a factor.


#2 San Jose Sharks vs #7 Los Angeles Kings
Regular Season results, split 3-3 (San Jose 3-1-2, Kings 3-3)

The San Jose Sharks quietly won the Pacific Division. The Sharks floundered (ok, I honestly didn't mean to make a fish joke) earlier in the year and were out of the playoff picture at one point, but without all the expectations on their shoulders, could this finally be the year? The Kings meanwhile have had their own ups and downs, but managed to hold on to a playoff spot despite losing their best player indefinitely due to injury, and lost 10 of 15 games in a stretch. However they have gotten some of the best goaltending in recent memory in Jonathan Quick, who has been near the top in almost every goaltending category.

San Jose Sharks: Despite of their big three having double digit drop offs in production, the Sharks have once again clinched their division. Ryan Clowe is having a career year in terms of points and goals while playing alongside rookie sensation Logan Couture. Defensively the Sharks have been quietly adequate. While not grabbing any headlines, they haven't caused any serious problems for the Sharks. When added to Niemi finding his game in San Jose, the Sharks turned it on when everybody stopped looking and now that the pressure's off, maybe this is the year.

Los Angeles Kings: While everyone has been quick to criticize the King's goaltending (puck, another awful pun. I'm racking them up today), more often than not it has been a lapse in team play in front of them. The Kings defense is solid crop of players lead by Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson along with some veteran know how from Rob Scuderi and Willie Mitchell. Offensively the Kings have been led all season by Anze Kopitar, who has recently been lost to a "lower body injury" (broken ankle) which will pose a challenge come this opening round series. Will trade deadline acquisition Dustin Penner be able to find his scoring touch in California once again? Los Angeles enters the playoffs with six 20 goal scorers, so they are getting contributions from multiple players, but someone will need to step into that dynamic role and attempt to replace Kopitar's team leading 48 assists.

Breakdown: The Sharks took advantage of the Kings towards the end of the season in a 6-1 drumming that seemed to expose every one of the Kings weaknesses. Coupled with the back to back losses to Anaheim to lose the 4th seed, the Kings are stumbling into the playoffs. The Sharks appear to be healthy and ready to make a run. The Kings will need their star players to step up. The Kings seem to be the team everyone loves to hate, and they can certainly use that to their advantage. The Sharks have lost their media favorite status this season, and that could be what they need to finally get to the Cup. Without the pressure of a fantastic regular season and high praises of their roster, they're finally free to just play hockey. This should be a classic matchup, and a hard fought series.

Bottom Line: Sharks in 6. It pains me to say that, as I like what the Kings have done for the most part this season, but you cannot deny the Sharks talent. Down the stretch Niemi has played really well and they seem to be clicking offensively. There is definitely potential for "upset" here though, so I can't truly rule out the kings.

#3 Detroit Redwings vs #6 Phoenix Coyotes
Regular Season results, split 2-2 with 3 of 4 games going to OT or SO (phoenix won the only regulation game)

A rematch of last year's first round Detroit beat Phoenix in a thrilling 7 game series. Detroit has been rather Detroit like all season, overcoming what most teams would consider insurmountable adversities only to thrive when it matters. They ended their season with a playoff like performance against the Blackhawks where the Wings showed why they are one of the teams to beat every April. The Coyotes are back in the playoffs for the second straight year, which has to be some kind of franchise record. Bryzgalov has been his excellent self between the pipes and constantly gives the 'Yotes a chance to win, and win they have. Keith Yandle has had a career year for Phoenix with 59 point campaign, which is good for 3rd amongst all NHL defensemen and 2nd on the Coyotes behind Captain Coyote, Shane Doan.

Detroit Red Wings: The list of players who have missed significant time this season for Detroit almost reads like a fantasy roster: Datsyuk, Rafalski, Osgood, Cleary, Modano, Draper, and they are currently without Henrik Zetterberg. This is a team that should be out it right? How quickly we forget that the Red Wings are the cockroaches of the NHL, they can survive anything. Jimmy Howard has had a drop in his performance, both goals-against and save percentage have taken a hit compared to last year, and Chris Osgood has missed most of the season with a groin injury, leaving the backup duties to journeyman Joey MacDonald. Howard's play must improve in order to advance. Zetterberg is listed as day-to-day with a lower body injury, so who knows when he will actually suit up for the Wings. If he is healthy enough to return, it will give this Detroit line up even more weapons up front.

Phoenix Coyotes: Is there something in the water in Glendale, or is Tippett really that good of a coach? I'm going to have to go with B, seeing as how he's guided this team to consecutive playoff appearances. Bryzgalov has been the bargain of the century in terms of waiver pick ups, and he has delivered consistent, if not phenomenal, play for the Coyotes ever since. Keith Yandle has been one of the more surprising stories this season, not just for Phoenix, but the entire league. He has an 18 point increase in points over last season, and improved his personal best in assists by 19. Look for Yandle to continue to push the offensive envelope during this series, especially if they have any hope of passing the Wings.

Breakdown: The regular season is almost like an 82 game warm up for the Detroit Red Wings. Forget what you think you know about them during that time because they always step their play up come April. Expect this year to be no different. You could even see it in Sunday's play against the Blackhawks, the Red Wings are ready for the playoffs. Phoenix continues to thrive under Dave Tippett, even with the ever looming controversy around ownership of the team and possible relocation. They even gave the Wings a scare last season as they took them all the way to game 7 in the opening round of the playoffs. Look for this series to be more of the same. The Coyotes have already proven that last year wasn't a fluke, and they've played Detroit hard this year. Look for this to be another instant classic.

Bottom Line: 7 games. All the "experts" are picking Detroit, and I have to agree, but I can't officially rule out the Coyotes. This might be the best match up in the West in the first round.


#4 Anaheim Ducks vs #5 Nashville Predators
Regular Season results, Nashville won 3-1

Nashville is a team that plays defensive hockey (3rd in goals against and 5th on the PK) and tries to make the most of their offensive opportunities. The Ducks on the other hand are led by Richard trophy winner and Hart nominee Cory Perry as they are 11th in goals per game and 3rd on the power play. This will be an offense versus defense battle. Pekka Rinne is undoubtedly a Vezina trophy finalist, finishing 2nd only to Tim Thomas in most categories. The Ducks have had some goaltending woes with at least four different goalies starting between the pipes for them.

Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks have one of the best lines in Perry-Getzlaf-Ryan, and Temmu Selanne is showing everyone that age is just a number putting up his best season in five years with 80 points in 73 games. Anaheim's top three scorers (Perry, Selanne, Getzlaf) have all scored at better than point per game pace this season. Lubomir Visnovsky leads the league with 68 points by a defenseman. Even their defense can score. the Ducks biggest cause for concern is goaltending. Is Jonas Hiller finally healthy enough to return to form that saw them almost topple the Red Wings in the playoffs a few years ago, or will his vertigo like symptoms return? Are Dan Ellis and Ray Emery capable of bringing the Cup back to Anaheim should Hiller not be able to play?

Nashville Predators: The Predators are seemingly the negative of Anaheim. There is no goaltending questions here, aside from whether or not Pekka Rinne win the Vezina trophy. He has been a work horse for the Predators, and his numbers are outstanding, 2.12 GAA and .930 save percentage with 6 shutouts. This is a goalie who knows how to close the door on the opposition. He will need to do that, with Nashville ranking near the bottom of the league, 26th, in goals per game. Rinne and the Predator defense, led by Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, will have to be on top of their game to beat the Ducks. Nashville has only two players over 20 goals and no one with more than 50 points. The Predators will have to be patient and weather a few offensive storms from Anaheim and make the most of their opportunities when they arise.

Breakdown: Anaheim seems to be the team to beat in this series, but Nashville can stop them. Regular season numbers don't mean much in the post season, but Predators coach Barry Trotz, knows how to get the most from his squad, and he knows how to prepare. The Ducks are not the most disciplined team as they have 4 players near or over 100 PIMs, so they will give Nashville chances on the power play. If Nashville can stay disciplined and tight defensively they could pull an upset. In the end it will be up to Pekka Rinne to steal a few games, possibly the series. If he can continue to play as well as he has, he can be a major source of frustration for the Ducks.

Bottom Line: Ducks* in 7. I'm making this conditional on the Ducks keeping their noses clean and keeping their heads in the game. The Predators can make life difficult for the opposition and if they can do that consistently, they can pull out a win in this series. Patience is a virtue, and both teams will need a lot of it to come out on top.


OK, we're all done. Time to count down till the playoffs start and then get glued to our televisions and internet feeds. Oh yeah, been a while since I've done this, but follow us on Twitter @WTPuckingPuck and like us on facebook. seriously. we need "friends"